CNN Takes Tesla Around Brooklyn in Full Self-Driving Mode. How Far Off Are NYC Robotaxis?
With all the news and talk about self-driving cars, NYC will likely prove to be a tricky streetscape to crack given various road, weather and regulatory dynamics. How close are we to NYC Robotaxis?
AutoMarketplace NYC covers the for-hire transportation industry and automotive news. Check out AutoMarketplace on YouTube ▶️
CNN Business recently did an interesting piece that documented its Transportation Editor, Michael Ballaban, using Tesla’s new Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta around Brooklyn. As one might have expected, the video clearly shows the technology isn’t quite ready to handle NYC streets just yet without a lot of driver intervention.
Firstly, I want to make clear that while I am an Elon Musk fan (he’s undoubtedly one of the great entrepreneurs of this generation), I am skeptical of his (and others) claims around how SOON (key word) fully autonomous cars will be on the road en masse. To be clear, this doesn’t mean I don’t believe ONE DAY full self-driving will come or that the technological & software progress being made is immense.
After all, a world where all cars can drive themselves will likely save millions of lives. More than 38,000 people on average die in road crashes every year in the US (1.35 million globally). At the same time, a world with autonomous vehicles (AVs) will eliminate many jobs from truck to for-hire transport drivers. Jobs that support many people and families. In addition, those who currently drive for a living may not qualify for other similar paying jobs and be forced to accept lower wages to make ends meet.
One of the reasons we started AutoMarketplace is to be a resource for drivers and other industry participants as they navigate what is set to be a highly disruptive 2020s - from EVs to AVs. In fact, with great disruption, comes great opportunity so it’s not all doom in gloom. For example, the rise of EVs will require new businesses to service those cars (i.e., charging stations, third party repair shops). If AVs become commonplace, drivers could form groups to buy and run fleets of vehicles. That all being said, it’s also important to separate the hype from what is actually happening and is likely to happen in the NEAR future.
How Close Are Robotaxis? Specifically Robotaxis in NYC?
There is currently, as in right now, an active robotaxi service transporting paying passengers in Arizona. Google spin-off Waymo has completed “tens of thousands” of trips in suburban Phoenix. GM’s Cruise division recently shared a video of its co-founder taking a driverless Chevy Bolt through urban San Francisco streets. So, to answer the question, robotaxis are actually here already! In fact, Waymo and Mobileye are currently testing self-driving capable vehicles in NYC (Note: without paying passengers).
“New York City is the most densely populated city in the country, with bustling avenues, unusual road geometries, complex intersections, and constantly evolving layouts, and we’ve designed the Waymo Driver to handle these types of complex and dynamic activities that define city driving. Our vehicles will be manually operated by autonomous specialists at all times, to help us scale and advance our technology in support of our mission to make roads safer.” - Waymo
“Autonomous vehicles hold the promise to dramatically improve traffic flow and expand access to convenient and affordable transportation for millions of New Yorkers. I’m excited to welcome Waymo to New York so that one day we can have safe autonomous technology on our streets.” - NYC Mayor-elect Eric Adams
“The more information we gather about the way our city moves, the closer we get to creating a more efficient, sustainable, and safe mobility network. Tech:NYC is excited to welcome Waymo to New York to help us learn how our streets — from bike and bus lanes to highways and walkways — really work.” - Tech:NYC Executive Director Julie Samuels
HOWEVER, there is a BIG difference between a few examples that get a lot of publicity versus something on the verge of mass adoption. In that regard, I wanted to share my thoughts on what the main hurdles are to mass market self-driving adoption and why I think we still have several years, maybe even more than decade, to go before we see many “robotaxis” on the streets of NYC. In addition, the way self-driving could play out might be hard to fully conceptualize. Some areas of a city or town may be “autonomous-only”, while others only allow “human-driven” cars. Lyft Co-Founder & President John Zimmer laid out such a vision in a March 2018 CNBC interview.
To be clear, this is not me saying don’t worry about or don’t track autonomous vehicles announcements - technology can move fast and new information or progress can result in revised predictions. As the years and experiments progress, I hope AutoMarketplace is a resource that can help you navigate (and benefit) from the quickly changing automotive-mobility industry we all must face and navigate head-on.
Main Hurdles for Self-Driving
Weather
Similar to any driver, a self-driving car can be tripped up by bad weather, such as snow, sleet, fog and rain. Do you think it was by accident that Waymo chose sunny, warm and dry Arizona to launch its first AV service?
While AV technology continues to improve (i.e., computers are exposed to more scenarios and learn via Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems), NYC’s four season climate will present challenges for engineers and self-driving companies to work through.
Unique NYC Road Dynamics
NYC is unlike most cities when it comes to traffic and road dynamics.
“People here are very very assertive because the majority of drivers here are professional drivers. Whether they are Uber, Lyft or taxis, they are driving because they need to make their living. They don’t have time to be polite. The culture here is very, very aggressive when the traffic is congested. It is unlike everywhere else. People complain about Boston, but New York City is much worse.” - Mobileye President & CEO Amnon Shashua
Pedestrians who often don’t follow street rules (i.e., jaywalking), the prevalence of double parking (i.e., delivery trucks), bikes, scooters, buses, light pollution from buildings that may distort how an AV perceives its surroundings - it’s clear companies need to solve for a lot to ensure their AV technology works in all “NYC scenarios”.
Costs
Self driving cars are really expensive. Think about the cost of all the computers, sensors and cameras needed to make, or convert a vehicle into, an AV.
Although costs will likely come down over time as the supply chain to make AV-related technology scales, currently it’s estimated that Waymo’s Jaguar I-Pace model equipped with self driving tech costs between $130,000 to $150,000. Even assuming the vehicle doesn’t get into a fender bender or need a lot of maintenance, the cost of deploying an AV fleet large enough to service NYC would be in the tens, if not hundreds of billions, of dollars currently. Mass adoption, I believe, would require the cost of AVs to significantly come down, especially when the cars can’t generate revenue (i.e., robotaxi revenue offsets increased costs).
Regulation & Insurance
Currently, in order to get an Autonomous Vehicle Technology Demonstration / Testing Permit in New York State a company must follow several rules, including.
Having a licensed driver behind the wheel at all times.
Carrying a $5 million insurance policy.
In NYC there are additional rules, on top of New York State regulations, that companies must follow in order to test autonomous vehicles (AVs) on City streets. The City’s Department of Transportation (DOT), which currently has oversight of NYC-specific AV permits, also requires companies to:
Self-certify their AVs will operate more safely than human drivers in NYC.
Submit collision notification and other operational metrics to the City.
Submit a safety plan.
Hold insurance that “indemnifies the City against legal liabilities”
As AV technology is tested and robotaxis deployed, additional rules and regulations will and must ultimately follow. In fact, while the DOT currently has jurisdiction over granting self-driving permits in NYC, the NYC Taxi & Limousine Commission (TLC) arguably should have oversight over robotaxi regulations as that involves the transport of passengers. Will previous rules regarding limits on for-hire permits be applicable? Will taxi medallions and TLC-plated cars be the only cars allowed to offer robotaxi services in NYC? In fact, as we mentioned in November 2020, NYC Council Member Justin Brannan has already proposed self-driving cars be regulated with special licenses (i.e., using existing medallions, perhaps FHV licenses) issued by the TLC.
“When Uber and Lyft first came to the city, there were no laws in place to stop them from flooding the streets…We didn’t see them coming back then and I think today, we’re still paying the price. This is a way for us to get in front of it…If Uber and Lyft want to go AV, then they need to work with existing medallions…That would prevent them from creating another bubble and steamrolling us” - NYC Council Member Justin Brannan
Furthermore, trying to figure out who is ultimately liable in the event of a self-driving accident is another hurdle, not unique to NYC, that federal, state & many other regulators will need to clearly define. For example, if a software error causes an accident who’s liable, the automaker or the software company? What if a pedestrian jaywalks and causes an AV to swerve into others or forces it to make awkward probability-based calculations around life and death (i.e., If AV doesn’t stop there is a 100% probability jaywalker dies, but if it swerves 10% chance 5 other pedestrians die)? These sorts of questions will eventually need to be clearly answered before you see any sort of mass adoption of AV technology, especially with regards to for-hire transportation use cases like robotaxis.
It’s Likely When, Not If
Although I may sound skeptical on self-driving technology, I do believe you’ll eventually see the technology become ubiquitous. Timing though is everything - the difference in AVs becoming commonplace in 5 years vs. 10 years vs. 20 years makes all the difference in how people perceive and navigate the change. In addition, I think the switch from “human-driven” 😀 to “robot-driven” 🤖 will not present itself as an “on-off switch” moment, but rather be a gradual transition over years if not more than a decade. Tracking self-driving progress will be vital as the technology progresses, but I don’t currently believe it poses a near or even medium term threat to NYC drivers.
What do you think? Do you think self-driving cars are 3, 5, 10 years+ a way in NYC? Are you nervous about its potential impact?
AutoMarketplace NYC covers the for-hire transportation industry and automotive news. Check out AutoMarketplace on YouTube ▶️