NYC Taxi News' Abe Mittleman, Carolyn Protz & AutoMarketplace's Dawood Mian discuss all things NYC for-hire transportation (TLC), including current events in the industry
The problem with fhv drivers shifting over to yellow is that its 2 different worlds and not to mention most fhv drivers have a car loan, very hard to switch when u are handcuffed
I really enjoyed the podcast and have a few questions/comments I'd like to share with you:
1): Do you think all 13,000 or so yellow cab medallions could be active on the road in the next 1-2 years if Uber and Lyft permanently deactivate vehicles older than a certain age on their platform, deactivate all part time drivers who work less than 20 hours a week or so, and the TLC does not issue any new EV Plates?
2): Do you think that Access-A-Ride and other NEMT companies farming out jobs to Yellow Cab Drivers helped recover the value of a medallion in addition to lower costs and long Uber/Lyft waitlists?
3): Do you see the amount of trips/MarketShare for community car services and traditional corporate black car (Skyline, ETG, Elite Limo) increasing, or for these services, namely corporate black car, to see expanded MarketShare, the office market in commercial real estate is going to have to recover to pre covid numbers?
Thanks Noah! Below responses / thoughts to the questions you asked.
(1) For all 13,587 taxi medallions to be active in 1-2 years would probably be an overly optimistic assumption, but the dynamics you mention are already / will increase number of active medallions. It's probably (regulation dependent re. TLC Plate release) going to be a 3-5 year time frame for all 13,587 to be on the road. However, in 1-2 years think you'll see 11,500 active medallion threshold broken and drivers beginning to get attracted to industry again (*this is key*). One could even argue the yellow cab industry is not fully back until all 13,587 are working double shifts. Still a long road ahead, but destination is getting closer.
(2) 100%.
(3) You have to remember the market shares of the different sectors in NYC are roughly 80% Uber / Lyft, 15% yellow cab and then 5% for community car (livery) services, traditional corporate black car, "lux limo". The utilization rate (UR)-based pay rules require any base that passes ~1.3% market share (10,000 trips per day) to start being subject to the UR-based minimum pay standards that result in ~$30 gross per hour, driven by keeping a driver busy at least 53% of the time (this will cause scaling issues for most bases that start growing). One suggestion of ours has been if the TLC is adamant on using UR, it must increase the trip threshold (i.e., 10,000 to 100,000) that makes a base "high-volume" (HV). There is definitely opportunity for growth in the 5% market share, but Uber / Lyft are still very difficult to compete with and UR regulations not helping. Office market recovering would be helpful, but think it's more about being able to compete better with Uber / Lyft (and to lesser extent taxis).
Uber minimum trip pay for short trips is showing as like $4.74 or something around that for all short trips. They lowered it and the customers are paying 9.99? Is this new? Can you look into this?
Definitely. Just so I understand, you’re saying if a passenger pays $9.99, Uber is saying it can pay you (net) as low as $4.74 on a trip now? Before, Uber would not pay you less than what amount on that same trip? $9.99 might be in reference to an UberOne customer (Uber’s version of Amazon Prime).
Technically, as long as they are abiding by minimum per mile / minute rates, they could do this. Obviously, only making $4.74 on any trip in NYC, unless it’s literally a few minutes, is very low. Assume Uber is also not giving any driver a cut of $9.99 monthly subscription.
Yes the rate has been down the last few days to that 4.74. Usually its like 6-7 dollars minimum for the minimum pay for trips. When I see what the customer is paying its usually around that 9.99 dollar mark
Yellow fell behind when they didn’t adapt e-hails full speed ahead. I usually order a CURB when i need a cab and its always cheaper and just as efficient
Also find myself using Curb more. Don't really know anyone who uses Arro. Lot of Gen Z, who are more price conscious, has made using Uber into a sort of "spending too much money" meme. Think Curb NYC downloads are only going to increase. Uber / Lyft will either respond by matching prices (where it can, by lowering its commission) or could just dispatch more to yellow cabs (technically via Curb), where they are not subject to UR rules and where there is less tax / surcharges resulting in them being able to offer a lower price to a consumer.
Completely agree. This new generation of passengers are moving towards e-hail. ARRO is not as popular as CURB is because they dont use FHV as their driver pool, they only use pretty much half of yellow/green cabs only.
When u order taxi thru CURB, u can either get yellow, green or a fhv, making the app much more efficient especially in zones where there are few yellow and/or green cabs.
Also this new gen of pax love the upfront price because the meter running is just not popular especially for those on a fix budget
The problem with fhv drivers shifting over to yellow is that its 2 different worlds and not to mention most fhv drivers have a car loan, very hard to switch when u are handcuffed
I really enjoyed the podcast and have a few questions/comments I'd like to share with you:
1): Do you think all 13,000 or so yellow cab medallions could be active on the road in the next 1-2 years if Uber and Lyft permanently deactivate vehicles older than a certain age on their platform, deactivate all part time drivers who work less than 20 hours a week or so, and the TLC does not issue any new EV Plates?
2): Do you think that Access-A-Ride and other NEMT companies farming out jobs to Yellow Cab Drivers helped recover the value of a medallion in addition to lower costs and long Uber/Lyft waitlists?
3): Do you see the amount of trips/MarketShare for community car services and traditional corporate black car (Skyline, ETG, Elite Limo) increasing, or for these services, namely corporate black car, to see expanded MarketShare, the office market in commercial real estate is going to have to recover to pre covid numbers?
Thanks Noah! Below responses / thoughts to the questions you asked.
(1) For all 13,587 taxi medallions to be active in 1-2 years would probably be an overly optimistic assumption, but the dynamics you mention are already / will increase number of active medallions. It's probably (regulation dependent re. TLC Plate release) going to be a 3-5 year time frame for all 13,587 to be on the road. However, in 1-2 years think you'll see 11,500 active medallion threshold broken and drivers beginning to get attracted to industry again (*this is key*). One could even argue the yellow cab industry is not fully back until all 13,587 are working double shifts. Still a long road ahead, but destination is getting closer.
(2) 100%.
(3) You have to remember the market shares of the different sectors in NYC are roughly 80% Uber / Lyft, 15% yellow cab and then 5% for community car (livery) services, traditional corporate black car, "lux limo". The utilization rate (UR)-based pay rules require any base that passes ~1.3% market share (10,000 trips per day) to start being subject to the UR-based minimum pay standards that result in ~$30 gross per hour, driven by keeping a driver busy at least 53% of the time (this will cause scaling issues for most bases that start growing). One suggestion of ours has been if the TLC is adamant on using UR, it must increase the trip threshold (i.e., 10,000 to 100,000) that makes a base "high-volume" (HV). There is definitely opportunity for growth in the 5% market share, but Uber / Lyft are still very difficult to compete with and UR regulations not helping. Office market recovering would be helpful, but think it's more about being able to compete better with Uber / Lyft (and to lesser extent taxis).
Uber minimum trip pay for short trips is showing as like $4.74 or something around that for all short trips. They lowered it and the customers are paying 9.99? Is this new? Can you look into this?
Definitely. Just so I understand, you’re saying if a passenger pays $9.99, Uber is saying it can pay you (net) as low as $4.74 on a trip now? Before, Uber would not pay you less than what amount on that same trip? $9.99 might be in reference to an UberOne customer (Uber’s version of Amazon Prime).
Technically, as long as they are abiding by minimum per mile / minute rates, they could do this. Obviously, only making $4.74 on any trip in NYC, unless it’s literally a few minutes, is very low. Assume Uber is also not giving any driver a cut of $9.99 monthly subscription.
Yes the rate has been down the last few days to that 4.74. Usually its like 6-7 dollars minimum for the minimum pay for trips. When I see what the customer is paying its usually around that 9.99 dollar mark
I noticed that too
Something happened here, you're right. Lot of social media chatter on this today. Seems like they lowered threshold from above $5. Some people are even saying they are getting trips for as low as $3.99! (2 min, 30 second trip). https://www.uberpeople.net/threads/just-another-few-dollars-an-hour-taken-off-no-big-deal-anyone-in-the-negative-hourly-yet.502274/
Thank you for finding this, I wasn't able to find other people's experience with the lower rates!
Yellow fell behind when they didn’t adapt e-hails full speed ahead. I usually order a CURB when i need a cab and its always cheaper and just as efficient
Also find myself using Curb more. Don't really know anyone who uses Arro. Lot of Gen Z, who are more price conscious, has made using Uber into a sort of "spending too much money" meme. Think Curb NYC downloads are only going to increase. Uber / Lyft will either respond by matching prices (where it can, by lowering its commission) or could just dispatch more to yellow cabs (technically via Curb), where they are not subject to UR rules and where there is less tax / surcharges resulting in them being able to offer a lower price to a consumer.
Completely agree. This new generation of passengers are moving towards e-hail. ARRO is not as popular as CURB is because they dont use FHV as their driver pool, they only use pretty much half of yellow/green cabs only.
When u order taxi thru CURB, u can either get yellow, green or a fhv, making the app much more efficient especially in zones where there are few yellow and/or green cabs.
Also this new gen of pax love the upfront price because the meter running is just not popular especially for those on a fix budget