📊🚖 TLC Fleet Hits 100,000 Vehicles
📊🚖 TLC Fleet Hits 100,000 Vehicles
With EV exemption to TLC Plate Cap reinstated, it's important to closely track the NYC FHV fleet. Data implies TLC should stop issuing new vehicle licenses or revert back to WAV-only exemption
The last time we published a full analysis of the NYC for-hire vehicle (a/k/a TLC) fleet, excluding yellow cabs, was January 2022. With the recent reinstatement of the electric vehicle (EV) exemption to the FHV License Pause (a/k/a TLC Plate Cap), we thought it would be a good time to do some “TLC Fleet” analysis again.
In the latest issue of Black Car News, TLC Chair David Do states:
“Some have predicted that this will create a flood of new vehicles on our roads, exacerbating congestion. I don’t believe that to be the case. We saw no such flood when the same exemption existed back in 2021, and given the city’s limited charging infrastructure, most TLC drivers will wait.”
- TLC Chair David Do
Firstly, there was a pandemic that started in 2020 which crushed the NYC for-hire transportation market. This is why drivers and fleets weren’t rushing to buy EVs in 2020 and 2021. In fact, the “predatory” leasing companies that Do loves to talk about and defame were in survival mode. Leasing companies were slashing their rates 30% - 50% (some gave up or went bankrupt as drivers disappeared from the market).
TLC-licensed drivers and fleets were also handing in or storing their FHV Licenses (TLC Plates). Very few were thinking about buying a $50,000+ EV for the NYC TLC industry, except investor-backed Revel. Why does Do think the regulator he now runs removed the EV exemption in June 2021 (🤔), if there was no fear of the market being flooded with EVs? Any honest analysis clearly showed there were more than enough NYC for-hire vehicles (FHVs) for the trip demand, probably too many FHVs.
This was obvious to the TLC of two years ago, but not to Do’s TLC. The same regulator is literally arguing against its own (correct) logic from 2 years ago!
“Why would the TLC license more vehicles when there are so many that are not in use right now…There is no shortage of licensed vehicles right now in New York City. The number of licensed vehicles outweighs the demands for rides by passengers. These are facts, and this is the math, and this is our reality.”
- Former TLC Chair Aloysee Heredia Jarmoszuk (June 2021)
Secondly, the cost has come down and model choices / availability of EVs has gone up since 2020/21 and significantly since the initial TLC Plate Cap in the summer of 2018. Again, fairly obvious.
“Flood” is also a subjective term, so let’s quantify. In the future, the TLC should quantify things, but we’ll do it for them in this instance.
Let’s use the following, fairly straightforward, metric:
Trips per For-Hire Vehicle (FHV)
5%+ decrease within 12 months = “oversaturation”
10%+ decrease within 12 months = “flood”
Remember, one has to layer on passenger trip demand to NYC for-hire vehicle supply. Standalone vehicle supply numbers without layering on trip demand is incomplete analysis. For example, if trip demand is increasing at a faster pace than you’re adding vehicles that dynamic might not hit driver earnings as much and could, perhaps justify the EV exemption policy (ignoring congestion concerns). If trip demand starts plateauing or declining and you’re adding more TLC-plated vehicles, that’s bad policy on several levels (i.e., driver earnings, congestion).
Yesterday, October 31st 2023, NYC hit 100,000 non-medallion NYC FHVs. The last time this number was hit (pre-pandemic) was in September 2017. Less than a year before the Mayor & NYC Council made the decision to cap FHVs (original TLC Plate Cap). This also excludes the fact that over 4,500 yellow taxi medallions remain sidelined!
It is incredible that the TLC has decided, at this moment, to reinstate the EV exemption to the TLC Plate Cap. As the famous saying goes, those who don't know history are destined to repeat it. We continue to urge policymakers to reverse this policy or at the very least exclude companies and fleets, like Revel, from being able to access more NYC FHV Licenses (TLC Plates).
We believe the data and analysis below, clearly demonstrates TLC implemented flawed policy by reinstituting the EV exemption and MUST reverse course.
NYC TLC Fleet Stats
Below we provide an overview of the current NYC TLC vehicle fleet, excluding yellow cabs (a/k/a taxi medallion cabs).
NYC TLC Plates (ex-Taxi Medallions)
NYC FHV Supply (*Active*)
Since we only have trip data until August 2023, we have to use NYC for-hire vehicle supply figures from August 2023 (i.e., can’t compare October 2023 vehicle supply with August 2023 trip demand). Below we provide an overview of the current NYC TLC vehicle fleet, including yellow cabs.
(Note: September 2017, February 2020 and August 2023 FHVs (ex-Taxis) supply is an estimate based on exact vehicle supply figures from NYC Open Data numbers near to each month’s end date)
NYC FHV Trip Demand
*Pre-pandemic ‘FHV - High Volume’ included minor trip market share from Juno & Via
NYC Trips per For-Hire Vehicle (FHV)
Since cross-base dispatching rights exist, all TLC-plated vehicles associated with a High Volume, Black Car, Livery & Lux Limo bases are included in calculation for Trips per FHV (ex-Yellow Cabs), as they can essentially service same trip base.
Summary
We believe, the data clearly shows it’s bad policy to add *new* NYC FHVs at this moment. In addition, if you start reactivating (“roading”) the 4,500+ taxi medallions on the sidelines, the numbers get worse.
As we stated earlier in this article.
Let’s use the following, fairly straightforward, metric:
Trips per For-Hire Vehicle (FHV)
5%+ decrease within 12 months = “oversaturation”
10%+ decrease within 12 months = “flood”
David Do’s TLC must do this analysis or they risk causing chaos, especially in the taxi medallion market. It’s clear Do’s TLC is not doing this analysis or is choosing to ignore it 🤷.
As always, let us know your thoughts (or if you think we made a mistake) in the comments section below or by emailing us at info@automarketplace.com.
AutoMarketplace NYC covers the for-hire transportation industry and automotive news. Check out AutoMarketplace on YouTube ▶️
Excellent article like usual.
How many plates do you think it has been added since the ev exemption was lifted