TLC Launches DriveNYCTaxi To Help Yellow & Green Taxi Owners Find TLC Drivers. My Thoughts On How the Industry Could Come Back

TLC Chair Heredia Jarmoszuk announces DriveNYCTaxi, a pilot program aimed at matching TLC-licensed drivers with Yellow & Green Cab owners. I share my thoughts on how the taxi industry could come back

Source: NYC Taxi & Limousine Commission

In TLC Chair’s Heredia Jarmoszuk latest industry update, she announces DriveNYCTaxi, a pilot program aimed at matching TLC drivers interested in leasing Yellow or Green Cabs with vehicle owners. Essentially, the TLC is creating a taxi marketplace trying to match vehicle supply with driver demand. I think it’s a great idea and it will be interesting to see how the program progresses, especially as NYC comes out of the pandemic and vaccines allow for a broader City re-opening.

Here is a link to the site and a screenshot below overviewing how the program works. These are the direct links to the TLC driver and vehicle owner sign-up forms: TLC Driver: Sign-Up Link / Vehicle Owner: Sign-Up Link

To be clear the TLC is not involving itself in commercial agreements between drivers and taxi owners and makes that very clear in its FAQs about the program.

How The Yellow & Green Cab Industry Could Come Back Post Pandemic

Ultimately this is how I see the NYC Yellow & Green Taxi industry developing over the next 12 to 24 months. We are now currently down to around 95,000 FHVs (will write about this more as another Commissioner’s report is due soon on FHV determination (i.e. ‘TLC Plate Cap’)). I would also expect more TLC plates to fall off as high level indications are a significant (10%+) of drivers may not have renewed their insurance during the annual renewal period. While some drivers may have stored their TLC plates with the intention of activating their FHV License again in a few months, it’s hard to tell how many TLC plates permanently drop off. From my understanding there are a few primary reasons TLC drivers and fleets are storing their plates: (1) to wait out lower volumes for the next months before spending money on an insurance deposit, (2) take a break from working as income support is being provided by PPP and stimulus checks and/or (3) keep optionality before making a move out of the industry / moving out of the NYC area. We will likely get a true sense of how many TLC plates remain in a relative steady state by September or October this year.

The reason I mention this dynamic is it directly influences supply and demand for Yellow & Green Cabs. Let’s assume by September 85,000 FHVs remain (down from a 120,600 peak in February 2019!). Trip volumes do not need to return to pre-COVID levels for the industry to recover as for-hire vehicle supply would have shrunk, in this example, 30%. If trip volumes, let’s say recovered to 80% of pre-COVID levels, that would imply (1) FHV drivers would have the potential to earn more money by being kept busier by the Apps and (2) excess trip demand may flow to Yellow and Green Cabs. Finally, since Uber and Lyft are no longer accepting new drivers, by 2022 or 2023 I could imagine a situation where new TLC drivers begin to go to Yellow and Green Taxi garages/owners to enter the industry and earn income. These are all guesses and I definitely could be wrong. Let me know what you think in comments below. The next 12-24 months will undoubtedly be one of the most dynamic the TLC industry has seen as we enter a post-pandemic world.

Auto Marketplace NYC Newsletter is written by Dawood Mian, Founder & CEO of Auto Marketplace NYC. He covers the NYC for-hire transportation industry and related news. Search Auto Marketplace NYC for cars, parts, tires, technicians, body shops, reviews & more. Find great deals at TLCMKT.COM (new site AutoMarketplace.io to be launched soon, sign-up to the newsletter if you are interested to learn more ahead of launch)