Discover more from AutoMarketplace
🔓😐⚡ Uber / Lyft NYC UR Plateauing, TLC Adds Green Rides Tab To Factbook
Utilization rates (UR), or how busy a NYC Uber / Lyft driver is kept, seems to be plateauing ~54%, just above 53% UR floor. New Green Rides tab in TLC Factbook shows 2025 EV/WAV target already met
Utilization rate (UR) is a key metric used in TLC Driver Minimum Pay calculation for high-volume bases (currently only Uber & Lyft)
UR is how busy a driver is kept while logged into either Uber or Lyft in NYC
December industrywide UR increased 1.2% to 53.9%. 2023 industrywide UR finished at 54.8%
53% industrywide UR floor was beat in shortened 2023 measurement period, but trip growth appears to be slowing / plateauing
Uber & Lyft NYC have now fully recovered to pre-pandemic trip volumes, but plateauing UR implies NYC for-hire vehicle (FHV) oversupply
TLC has added Green Rides Initiative tab to Factbook, revealing 2025 EV/WAV trip target has already been met
⏲️ Estimated time to read article: ~8 minutes
This is our fifth update on Uber / Lyft’s monthly NYC utilization rates (UR). UR can simply be described as how busy an Uber / Lyft NYC driver is kept. It is a key metric for TLC-licensed drivers to track because it tells you the probability of “lockouts” returning, the appropriateness of NYC for-hire vehicle (TLC Plate) supply vs. trip demand and how much time it might take a prospective app driver to get off Uber / Lyft’s NYC waitlist.
The lower UR is, especially anything that risks breaking the 53% driver minimum pay-related UR floor, the higher probability of lockouts and the longer new drivers will have to wait to get access to Uber and Lyft in NYC. For example, we know of some drivers who have been waiting months to get off the waitlists.
*New* Green Rides Tab in TLC Factbook
With the passage of the Green Rides Initiative last October, the TLC has now added a dedicated tab in the TLC Factbook to measure how many NYC Uber / Lyft trips are being done with either a wheelchair accessible vehicle (WAV) or zero emission vehicle, such as a battery electric vehicle (EVs).
As we’ve covered, the surprise reinstatement (temporarily paused since November 13th due to a legal action by NYTWA) of the EV exemption to the FHV License Pause (TLC Plate Cap), has thus far resulted in the TLC licensing over 7,100 *new* EVs…in the last few months!
The addition of so many EVs, in such a short period of time, has already helped push over 15% of all Uber / Lyft NYC trips to be completed by a WAV (9%) or EV (6%). This figure already meets the City’s 2025 Green Rides goal (in January 2024)! It’s also exposing NYC’s woefully inadequate EV charging infrastructure.
Hopefully, this will also cause the TLC to reflect upon the current need for additional EVs ahead of its annual FHV License (TLC Plate) Review, set to be published in March. As TLC data shows and as we write about next, overall NYC for-hire trip growth is slowing, UR is plateauing and the yellow cab industry continues to meaningfully struggle. In addition, given the yellow cab industry has an existing WAV mandate, it might make sense for the TLC to even consider removing the WAV exemption to the TLC Plate Cap, until next year’s FHV License Review.
Article continues after advertisement
UR Plateauing?
2023 industrywide UR, which began being measured in April 2023, finished at 54.8%, comfortably above the 53% floor. From our understanding, beginning in 2024, industrywide UR will now be measured on a calendar year basis from January to December. This is important for several reasons. For example, a calendar year UR measurement will include the months of January through March, which might have a lower average UR than the rest of the year.
Josh Gold, a senior policy director for Uber, implied in public hearing testimony last March, and as most NYC TLC drivers subjectively know, that January is typically a very slow month for work.
“…I believe there was a couple months in 2020, probably in January, which is a slow month, it’s below 56%…”
- Josh Gold, Senior Director of Public Affairs at Uber
What’s interesting about Gold’s testimony from early March 2023, is Uber, backed by TLC data, was indeed comfortably above 56% for almost every following month in 2023, except August, another notoriously slow month for NYC TLC drivers.
What’s changed though is since November 2023, Uber’s specific UR now seems to be declining and plateauing. In November and December 2023, Uber’s UR was 54.1% and 54.2%, respectively. Another explanation, could be Lyft’s increasing UR, but overall industrywide UR has a declining trajectory since September and seems to be plateauing now at a dangerous 53% to 54% UR level, just above the TLC Driver Minimum Pay floor. What’s the big deal? If industrywide UR for Uber / Lyft ends 2024 below the 53% floor, it will cost both companies a lot of money as the denominator they’ll have to use in the driver pay calculation will decrease.
To be simple, Uber and Lyft will be forced to “lockout” some currently active drivers if they begin to observe that they (Uber + Lyft) cannot comfortably sustain above a 53% industrywide UR with their current active NYC TLC driver base. There are already early warning signs, from growing waitlists to plateauing UR metrics to slowing NYC trip growth.
In addition, the NYC yellow cab sector is still ~50% below pre-pandemic trips, so any recovery will likely decrease Uber and Lyft’s overall NYC trip market share. Furthermore, if yellow cabs get a congestion tolling exemption, that also might drive trips away from Uber / Lyft to “structurally” more affordable taxis. Remember, there are still over 4,000 inactive taxi medallions, so as those yellow cabs get on the road, they might also take more trip market share from Uber and Lyft.
Hopefully the TLC Factbook charts below, clearly illustrate our points above.
Declining to plateauing industrywide UR, although Lyft’s UR is recovering from sub-50% levels. Both Uber and Lyft will need to ensure their combined URs don’t fall below 53% or face significant cost increases…
…A full Uber/Lyft NYC recovery to pre-pandemic trip levels ✅, but slowing to plateauing trip growth…
…AutoMarketplace expects (hopes) the struggling yellow cab 🚕 sector will bounce back from still being ~50% below pre-pandemic trip levels. A taxi recovery will likely take market share away from Uber and Lyft, impacting their URs further…
As always, let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or by emailing us at info@automarketplace.com.
AutoMarketplace NYC covers the for-hire transportation industry and automotive news. Check out AutoMarketplace on YouTube ▶️
Interested in advertising with us? Please email info@automarketplace.com
Unfortunately im not sure yellow would ever come back.
For example the other day I picked up a LYFT at 138th st and Broadway, the subway was not working so everyone was ordering Uber/lyft while so many Yellow and Green cabs passed by empty.
Passengers have switched from street hails to app hails, primarily because of convenience and upfront pricing. Many passengers are unaware that most times yellow is cheaper but yellow has no upfront pricing.