🔐 Uber Sends "Lockout" Message, TLC Drivers Confused
As new driver pay raise, including reduced utilization rate "floor", is set to be implemented, Uber warns NYC TLC drivers of upcoming changes. What's happening?
Uber sent TLC drivers a message about changes to how Company may operate in NYC
TLC drivers fear “lockouts” will return, even after Uber guided that lower utilization rates would prevent them
We believe new TLC driver signups (i.e., creation of waiting list) for the NYC Uber/Lyft Apps will soon be closed, similar to what happened in April 2019
Uber Planner (“lockouts”) could return in near future, but could be less harsh
After very recently celebrating a new driver pay raise, including lowering the utilization rate floor to 53% (from 56%) to reduce the probability of driver “lockouts”, Uber surprised many NYC TLC drivers with this message 👇.
Wait a minute? Didn’t Uber Executive Josh Gold verbatim say, in public testimony not even two weeks ago, there was "no concern” about NYC driver lockouts at 53%?
Why this message, why now, what gives 🤷♀️?
“There is no concern about falling below 53% [utilization rate]”
- Uber Executive Josh Gold implying if utilization rate “floor” went from 56% to 53%, there would not be a need to institute NYC “lockouts”
Lockout Games
In our coverage of the driver pay raise, given the different, complicated calculations and dynamics at play, we often framed things with phrases such as “highly unlikely” or “lowers the probability”. We do this for a few reasons, based on new information shared (i.e., Gold’s testimony) and our understanding about how the driver pay rules work.
Remember, no one can with 100% certainty say there will never be lockouts because well..IT DEPENDS. It fundamentally depends on the free market of demand for trips and supply of drivers able to pickup those trips. Uber, Lyft, the TLC can influence the supply side, but has little direct control over the demand. That is, outside of making the taximeter or driver pay rates too high or low.
Right now, Uber is merely warning ⚠️ NYC TLC drivers about changes, but hasn’t instituted any. We do think such messages, while sharing a reality, need to be better communicated to Uber’s NYC TLC driver base. The cold, technical and ambiguous communication style intimidates many drivers. Hold a City driver meetup, send a video message - TLC drivers need Uber and Uber needs TLC drivers. Driver advocates, especially ones with potential conflicts, also need to be collaborative.
It’s a two way street.
As we wrote in a recent piece:
If you raise the fare too much, including from government surcharges, eventually you’re going to kill trip demand. If you kill trip demand, the utilization rate victory and pay raises become less meaningful.
- AutoMarketplace (March 9, 2023)
Being in the NYC “lockouts are returning” prediction game is tough. Back in May 2021, nearly two years ago 🙄, we said the following.
Once Uber/Lyft have enough drivers that can satisfy demand AND which allows them to satisfy the driver minimum pay standard - the Uber Planner will likely come back as excess driver supply outstrips passenger demand (we also expect driver waiting lists to return). Our guess is that this will happen either late this year or in the first half of 2022.
- AutoMarketplace (May 29, 2021)
Obviously, the timing of this prediction was off, but we actually think the same dynamics described above will now, over the next several months or maybe few years, play out.
Based primarily on Uber’s guidance above, we don’t see the much hated Uber Planner (“lockouts”) returning OR if it does, it’ll be with much lower trip and cancellation thresholds for EXISTING TLC DRIVERS to access the Apps. These new thresholds hopefully shouldn’t be as stressful to drivers, in our view.
However, what we do see occurring sooner, rather than later is Uber (& Lyft) stopping new driver “hiring”/onboarding for the NYC TLC market, similar to media headlines back in April 2019.
If you, a friend or family member do not have an active driver account with Uber or Lyft in NYC, we suggest you act soon or risk a waiting list.
There is also another solution to lower the probability of driver “lockouts” and that is “locking out” NEW drivers from the TLC industry 🤔 👇 Some additional food for thought.
As always, let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or by emailing us at info@automarketplace.com.
AutoMarketplace.com NYC covers the for-hire transportation industry and automotive news. Check out AutoMarketplace.com on YouTube ▶️
It’s a dog-eat-dog world out there in NYC rideshare. As a driver, if this means driver wait lists instead of lockouts, so be it.
Very funny “NO, LOCKOUTS” meme, by the way!! 🤣
Not being a medallion owner you are not aware of how your opinions matters to medallion owners.
The unfair pricing by an uncompetitive unregulated computerized and immediate pricing system (uber) against a fixed system (taxis) is insulting , unfair , and what the f”k
Pricing needs to be regulated or equalized by giving taxis advantage to compensate
Price is everything