“[For-hire vehicle (FHV)] license holders have to talk with one another and negotiate…because if [TLC plate holders and taxi medallion owners] start fighting with each other, 100% a company like Waymo or Tesla will take advantage…[to] then…create their own new [AV] licensing regime and everybody gets eliminated, no one gets upside…”
DISCLAIMER: Nothing in the discussion should be interpreted as financial advice.
In this episode of the NYC Taxi News podcast, Abe, Carolyn, Nancy, and Dawood came to a surprising conclusion: autonomous vehicles (AVs) may not destroy the medallion system after all. Instead, the medallion (and TLC plate) could become the very license that companies like Tesla and Waymo need to operate their robotaxi networks in New York.
With New York State bill S2688 attempting to tie AVs that conduct paid trips to Taxi & Limousine Commission (TLC) licensing, medallion owners—long written off as yesterday’s losers—may suddenly find themselves holding the most important asset in the NYC for-hire transportation industry.
We think that’s no coincidence. Marblegate, now the largest holder of medallions, has appointed, among other actions, former NYC TLC Chair Meera Joshi to its board and is likely to get much more politically involved to protect its sizeable (more than $600 million) investment. If they’re right, the medallion’s future isn’t extinction—it’s reinvention. For drivers and owners who’ve lived through years of collapse, that’s a twist worth paying close attention to.
But here’s the catch: unity in the industry is fragile. Medallion owners and TLC plate (FHV license) holders, who often work with Uber and Lyft, still spend too much energy fighting each other. We warn on the podcast that if this continues, Silicon Valley (Big Tech) will seize the opportunity. Tesla and Waymo aren’t shy about lobbying, and if they succeed in pushing a brand-new NYC AV licensing regime, almost everyone in the TLC industry—drivers, fleets, base owners, garages, insurance companies, other local mom-and-pop businesses—will be left behind.
Politics only raises the stakes. Zohran Mamdani, running as a Democratic Socialist, is leading in New York City’s mayoral race. Whether you see him as a savior or a threat, one fact is clear: the winner of this election will appoint the city’s next Taxi & Limousine Commission Chair—a choice that could determine whether AVs are tied to medallions and plates or handed wholesale to outside corporations—and will wield tremendous influence over the future of NYC’s AV regulations.
Notably, Mamdani’s first major political achievement, as a New York State Assembly Member, centered on debt relief for NYC taxi medallion owners! The deal—known as MRP+—hinged on Marblegate’s participation, delivered more than $400 million in debt relief to taxi drivers and left the City on the hook (via a loan guarantee) for tens of millions in Marblegate’s restructured medallion debt.
The takeaway is simple: the future of taxi medallions and TLC plates in New York City is still unwritten. Medallions could regain value, FHV license holders could secure a foothold in the AV world, and drivers could finally share in the upside of “disruption”—but only if the industry stops fighting itself and demands clarity from elected representatives before it’s too late. Otherwise, the rules won’t just be set in Silicon Valley boardrooms or behind closed doors—they could be drafted in Washington, as tech companies lobby the federal government to override local regulations and clear the way for their AV fleets.
Also available on YouTube ⬇️
TABLE OF CONTENTS
00:00 – Abe's intro - driverless taxis, hustlers, election & more 01:31 – Carolyn's intro - trip data update, $140M lawsuit settlement for wrongfully suspended drivers & more 04:05 – TLC public hearing on 9/3 on insurance, pay rates, parking, and City Council hearing on 9/15 on various issues, including new TLC Board Commissioners 04:50 – Waymo AV testing, NYC TLC Board Member Sarah Kaufman, NYU Rudin Center’s autonomous taxi medallion idea & (ex-NYC TLC Chair) Meera Joshi joining Marblegate board 06:45 – Carolyn's thoughts on Mayoral race: Mamdani vs. Adams, Cuomo, and Sliwa 08:59 – Driver bathroom struggles 12:00 – Robotaxis don't need to go to the bathroom?, FHV parking vs. taxi stands, Yellow cabs get bus lane access like London? 13:22 – Introduction to AV discussion 14:20 -- Marblegate, Meera Joshi, and gaming out AV-medallion politics -- Senate Bill S2688: new AV licenses tied to existing taxi medallions 20:30 – Marblegate, Team Systems, and new taxi clubhouses 25:00 – Nancy’s story of getting ticketed while searching for a restroom 32:50 – AV depots, driver facilities, and underinvestment in taxis 37:30 – Medallions vs. TLC plates: who has more rights and AV disintermediation? (Part 1) 50:18 – Medallions vs. TLC plates: who has more rights and AV disintermediation? (Part 2) 51:30 -- Warning: infighting will only help Tesla, Waymo and Big Tech 53:24 – The unanswered question: how many cars does NYC need? 01:02:00 – Next mayor’s TLC chair appointment will shape AV future 01:05:00 – Why Mamdani appeals to young, disillusioned voters 01:12:00 – Incompetence vs. socialism: NYC’s real problem 01:15:00 – Election stakes for medallions, plates, and AV licensing 01:17:00 – Closing thoughts: industry unity and call for candidate views on AV regulation
