🔐🖤🩷 Industrywide Utilization Rate Hits 53.1% in April, Drops 2.6% from Last Year
April 2024 utilization rate (UR) data is first time annual UR comparison can be made. FHV supply oversaturation and EV / WAV trip share points to TLC *not* releasing more plates in Feb 2025
UR is how busy a driver is kept while logged into either Uber or Lyft in NYC
Industrywide utilization rate (UR) is a key metric used in NYC TLC’s driver minimum pay calculation for high-volume bases (currently Uber and Lyft)
April industrywide UR was 53.1%, but year-to-date UR of 51.5% is well below 53.0% TLC regulatory floor, with seasonally slow August approaching
Uber’s standalone UR appears to be plateauing just above 53% threshold, while Lyft is struggling to break 50% UR and losing market share
April 2024 is first month where a year-on-year UR comparison can be made, as TLC started publishing utilization rate data beginning with April 2023
OPINION: Percent of Uber NYC trips serviced by an electric vehicle (EV) or wheelchair accessible vehicle (WAV) has surged to ~20% in May. Releasing more EV-restricted TLC Plates in February 2025 is highly unlikely
This is our ninth monthly update on NYC TLC utilization rates (UR). UR can simply be described as how busy an Uber and/or Lyft NYC driver is kept while they are logged into an app.
We won’t fully re-explain how UR relates to the recent launch of, much hated, Uber and Lyft NYC TLC driver “lockouts”. Just as a reminder, “lockouts” is a term many in the NYC for-hire transportation industry use to refer to a situation where drivers, who work for Uber and Lyft, cannot log into the apps when and where they want.
Our video below has gained a bit of traction and helped people understand all the various dynamics which has led to NYC driver “lockouts”. So, if you need a refresher or want to really understand why lockouts have arisen (again), we encourage you to watch the video below.
April 2024 UR Figures
April 2024 is the first ☝️month where a year-on-year (YoY) UR comparison can be made, as the NYC TLC only started publishing utilization rate data as of April 2023.
Below, we summarize April 2024 UR in YoY, month-on-month (MoM) and year-to-date (YTD) terms.
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🖤🩷 Industrywide UR
Remember, industrywide UR is measured on a calendar year (January to December) basis, so there might be some months (i.e., January, August) that can drag the average lower but are offset by other, busier months.
A 🤔 51.5% industrywide UR four months into 2024 is dangerously below the 53% UR floor included in the TLC’s minimum driver pay formula. This is a major reason why Uber and Lyft are “locking out” NYC TLC drivers. Both apps have implemented a lockout strategy because there is driver (and vehicle) oversupply.
📉 April Industrywide UR was 53.1%, 2.6% lower than April 2023 (YoY)
📉 April Industrywide UR was 53.1%, 0.3% lower than March 2024 (MoM)
📈 YTD April Industrywide UR is 51.5%, 0.5% higher than the YTD figure last month, but below the 53% regulatory threshold that creates additional cost for Uber and Lyft, which will lead to harsher lockouts and longer driver waitlists
A sub-53% calendar year industrywide UR would be disastrous for both Uber and Lyft NYC. Simply put, the amount the apps would have to pay drivers would increase, but at the cost of fewer drivers being able to freely log into the apps 24/7.
It’s worth repeating the decision both Uber and Lyft took to restart NYC TLC driver lockouts is not surprising to us given the above UR data. Clearly, there are too many drivers and for-hire vehicles (FHV) on the road for the amount of trips available. Clearly, allowing over 10,000 *new* FHV Licenses (TLC Plates) in 2023 alone was a big mistake. If seasonal UR trends are similar to last year, July and August 2024 will likely drag industrywide UR lower, after it peaks in June (unless driver lockouts change summer industrywide UR results).
🖤🩷 Uber & Lyft Standalone UR
As we covered, Uber is arguing that they should be judged on a standalone UR basis and Lyft is driving the industrywide metric lower. Uber is technically correct, but such action would, in our opinion, effectively kill Lyft’s business in NYC given Uber’s much larger market share. This is a major reason why we continue to argue UR should be abandoned by the TLC altogether and the regulator should instead focus on driver and vehicle supply controls. Controls, which btw, can easily be adjusted if the market needs more FHVs.
📉 Uber April UR was 54.7%, 2.9% lower than April 2023 (YoY)
📉 Uber April UR was 54.7%, 0.1% lower than March 2024 (MoM)
📉 Lyft April UR was 49.1%, 1.6% lower than April 2023 (YoY)
📉 Lyft April UR was 49.1%, 0.8% lower than March 2024 (MoM)
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Supply & Demand
To simplistically refine our points and commentary above, reflect on the following:
In April 2023 there were 19.1 million total Uber and Lyft NYC trips. The industrywide UR was 55.7% in April 2023.
In April 2024 there were 19.7 million total Uber and Lyft NYC trips, or 3.1% more trips than April 2023. However, industrywide UR is currently 53.1%!
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Clearly, the market is oversaturated with drivers and cars. More trips are resulting in drivers being more idle! 👀
The release of over 10,000 FHV Licenses (TLC Plates) in 2023 alone is clearly one the main explanations to why the market is currently oversaturated with drivers and FHVs. If the TLC’s argument is “who could have predicted this?”, clearly we, and many industry participants, seemed to be able to read the very basic supply and demand writing on the wall. If we do not repeatedly call this out, the same policy mistakes are bound to happen next year or in following years.
Furthermore, the TLC’s staggered goal of making 100% of all NYC rideshare trips serviced by an EV or WAV is comfortably ahead of schedule, with nearly 1 in 5 Uber trips in NYC already “Green Rides” ⚡♿ compliant. There is a lot more we can say about the reasonableness of such a goal, given the lack of City charging infrastructure, but that’s for another time.
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February 2025 “TLC Plate Cap” Decision (Prediction)
We are now comfortable predicting the TLC will not release new non-WAV FHV Licenses (new non-WAV TLC Plates) after the February 2025 FHV License Review. In other words, drivers, fleets and businesses should not expect to be able to acquire non-WAV TLC Plates until at least March 2026, likely later. If our prediction is correct, this should benefit driver earnings, get more inactive yellow cabs on the road again and result in taxi medallion valuations increasing.
Today is June 24th 2024. AutoMarketplace is the largest trade publication and content creator focused on the NYC for-hire transportation (TLC) industry. Several TLC and City policymakers subscribe to this newsletter. They should, respectfully, take note of what we are saying, along with many others, and why we, and they, are saying it. Last time our, along with many others, warnings were ignored and here we are - lockouts, protests, chaos.
I spoke too soon, lyft started locking out last night smh
Next week Lyft will start locking out and the real shitshow will begin. Drivers are seeing up to 50% less money on a daily basis.
Many find themselves driving aimlessly trying to log in wasting valuable times that can be spent with family or simply resting.
Last might a TLC driver fell asleep at the wheel and I wouldn’t doubt its because they are on the road for longer time trying to reach their daily goals.
This is a serious problem that is resulting in many damages being done across the industry.
The camels back is about to break.