Latest NYC TLC Factbook update might signal market headwinds as trip growth declines. Despite lockouts, Lyft's July UR was 45.1% meaning Uber could restart more aggressive NYC driver app restrictions
I'm an analyst for a large medallion leasing company. I can confirm Uber accounts for about 10% of all the yellow taxi trips in our fleet. However, the trips sent are much less lucrative for the drivers. The average credit card fare not including Uber trips stands around $31, the trips Uber sends average around $19. This suggests to me they are keeping the higher trips to their own fleet, helping the minimum pay formula.
Really interesting data and thank you for sharing! Is that % increasing as time goes on or is it mostly staying flat at ~10%? Recently spoke to two yellow cab drivers and they are telling me now 40%-50% of their trips are coming from Curb / Uber, but maybe we spoke to drivers with outlier experiences. Do you think the colder months will increase the figure? In terms of the less lucrative trips, why are taxi drivers accepting them vs. waiting for a better paying street hail? Thanks in advance for any additional insight!
The % fluctuates but trends similarly to busy months vs slow months. For example, March to June (Historically busy months) it averaged about 10%, July and August (slow months), around 6-7% and this month so far, it's 10%. This is only Uber though, if you add Curb in the mix then indeed the trips from those two companies are hovering around 30-40% of the total trips on average. I think the colder months since they are busier would increase the % but it's really all up to Uber's agenda. If it benefits them then that's what will happen but easily can go the other way if their internal policy changes of how they view these trips they are pushing to yellows. I believe the taxi drivers are accepting them because it's an opportunity cost to drive around and look for a possible better trip when you have the option of accepting a guaranteed lower rate. Anything is better than zero.
Yes, they started locking out drivers in mid-June. We were in touch with several drivers during this time period who were getting locked out (varies by driver though). In August the Lyft lockouts probably got worse and more widespread.
Great question and not sure. Uber did say if Lyft didn't maintain 50% standalone UR it would need to lockout drivers again. Essentially, Uber needs to do this to make sure the industrywide UR stays at 53%+.
NYTWA is continuing strike / legal action(s) and TLC might propose new rules but all of that takes time, as you know. Let's see what August and September data reveal. Because the TLC data has a few month lag before being published, they'll probably make a final decision after seeing August UR stats in mid/late October. All guesses though.
I'm an analyst for a large medallion leasing company. I can confirm Uber accounts for about 10% of all the yellow taxi trips in our fleet. However, the trips sent are much less lucrative for the drivers. The average credit card fare not including Uber trips stands around $31, the trips Uber sends average around $19. This suggests to me they are keeping the higher trips to their own fleet, helping the minimum pay formula.
Really interesting data and thank you for sharing! Is that % increasing as time goes on or is it mostly staying flat at ~10%? Recently spoke to two yellow cab drivers and they are telling me now 40%-50% of their trips are coming from Curb / Uber, but maybe we spoke to drivers with outlier experiences. Do you think the colder months will increase the figure? In terms of the less lucrative trips, why are taxi drivers accepting them vs. waiting for a better paying street hail? Thanks in advance for any additional insight!
The % fluctuates but trends similarly to busy months vs slow months. For example, March to June (Historically busy months) it averaged about 10%, July and August (slow months), around 6-7% and this month so far, it's 10%. This is only Uber though, if you add Curb in the mix then indeed the trips from those two companies are hovering around 30-40% of the total trips on average. I think the colder months since they are busier would increase the % but it's really all up to Uber's agenda. If it benefits them then that's what will happen but easily can go the other way if their internal policy changes of how they view these trips they are pushing to yellows. I believe the taxi drivers are accepting them because it's an opportunity cost to drive around and look for a possible better trip when you have the option of accepting a guaranteed lower rate. Anything is better than zero.
Incredible insight, thanks for sharing. Did not realize Curb was originating that many trips for yellow cabs!
lyft didnt do any lockout in july
Lyft actually locked out a ton in July. Consider yourself lucky
Yes, they started locking out drivers in mid-June. We were in touch with several drivers during this time period who were getting locked out (varies by driver though). In August the Lyft lockouts probably got worse and more widespread.
So whats it gonna be? lockouts are definitely coming back. Is nobody going to do anything? No class-action lawsuit?
Great question and not sure. Uber did say if Lyft didn't maintain 50% standalone UR it would need to lockout drivers again. Essentially, Uber needs to do this to make sure the industrywide UR stays at 53%+.
NYTWA is continuing strike / legal action(s) and TLC might propose new rules but all of that takes time, as you know. Let's see what August and September data reveal. Because the TLC data has a few month lag before being published, they'll probably make a final decision after seeing August UR stats in mid/late October. All guesses though.