🔐🖤🩷 Uber UR Surges To 60.8%, As Lockouts Push YTD Industrywide UR to 53.0%
Uber's standalone UR hits 60.8% in June, pushing much followed year-to-date (YTD) industrywide UR to exactly 53.0% regulatory floor. Lyft struggles to break 50% UR, but that should change soon
Industrywide utilization rate (UR) is a key metric used in the NYC TLC’s driver minimum pay calculation for high-volume bases (currently Uber and Lyft)
UR is how busy a driver is kept while logged into either Uber or Lyft in NYC
Uber started “locking out” drivers in mid-May to legally “game” intention of TLC’s UR-based driver minimum pay protection rules
June industrywide UR was 57.3% and year-to-date UR 53.0%, driven by a surge in Uber’s standalone UR to 60.8% (likely boosted by driver lockouts)
This is our 11th monthly update on NYC TLC utilization rates (UR). UR can simply be described as how busy a NYC TLC-licensed driver who works for Uber and/or Lyft is kept while they are logged into their apps.
To directly access the NYC TLC Factbook click here.
As expected, Uber’s standalone UR surged in June, as it was the first full month of Uber’s NYC driver access restrictions (“lockouts”). Since Uber has a much more dominant market share vs. Lyft, year-to-date (YTD) industrywide UR is now exactly at the 53.0% regulatory threshold that helps the rideshare apps avoid significant financial penalties.
“Given that (1) June is usually a busy month for overall trips, (2) Uber lockouts were in full swing in June, and (3) Lyft also began lockouts in June, YTD industrywide UR might come close to breaking 53% in the next Factbook update. Let’s see! 🤔”
- AutoMarketplace (July 29, 2024)
Although Lyft’s standalone UR continues to struggle to break 50%, a key part of the recently announced deal between the rideshare apps and Mayor / TLC, we expect Lyft lockouts to increase their July and August utilization figures. Remember, Lyft only started locking out drivers in mid-June. We also understand from several drivers that Lyft lockouts have gotten worse over the summer.
We want to continue to reiterate our fears related to Lyft, or any future scaled competitor, being able to effectively compete with Uber in NYC, if the TLC does not act to amend UR-based driver minimum pay rules. Lyft’s UR might increase in the upcoming months, but it will likely come at the cost of market share.
“As we’ve mentioned, Uber’s much larger NYC market share position (~60% to Lyft’s ~21%) makes it easier for it to keep its driver base busier, resulting in a higher standalone utilization rate (UR).
Subjecting a much smaller market player (Lyft) to similar utilization requirements as the 60% market share leader (Uber), is bad policy and unfair. To use an Olympic Games analogy, imagine wrestlers, boxers or weightlifters 🏋️ not being divided into weight classes (i.e., heavyweight vs. featherweight). Almost everyone would agree that such a dynamic would result in fairly predictable outcomes.”
- AutoMarketplace (August 1, 2024)
For more details about our logic, please see our recent video below.
NYC Trip Demand
🖤🩷 In June 2023 there were 19.366 million total Uber and Lyft NYC trips. The industrywide UR was 56.2% in June 2023, without lockouts
🖤🩷 In June 2024 there were 20.123 million total Uber and Lyft NYC trips, or 4.0% more trips than June 2023. Industrywide UR was 57.3%, with lockouts
🚕 In June 2023 there were 3.307 million total yellow cab trips
🚕 In June 2024 there were 3.539 million total yellow cab trips, or 7.0% more trips than June 2023, although total active taxis are increasing
🚕 Note: Uber executive Josh Gold recently revealed ~10% of yellow cab trips originate from the Uber app. We believe this figure is included in the 3.539 million yellow cab trip figure (i.e., Uber originated ~350,000 NYC taxi trips in June). This implies a large part of yellow cab trip growth is coming from Uber.
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New Info & Taxi Medallions In Storage
The TLC’s Factbook also has a new tab named “Drivers and Vehicles” that gives great details, in an easy to read format, around NYC TLC-licensed drivers and vehicles.
For example, TLC reveals that 34% of the 180,842 licensed NYC taxi and FHV drivers live in Queens, 27% are between the ages of 30 to 39 and Bangladesh is the leading “country of origin” for drivers.
The TLC also provides insightful data around the City’s for-hire vehicle fleet. Of particular note is the 11,322 electric vehicles (EVs) already doing for-hire trips and information around the number of taxi medallions 🚕 in storage. The TLC reveals 4,207 (👀) medallions remain in storage.
The only thing that doesn’t quite add up (more a note 🚩 for TLC’s data team) is if there are a total of 13,587 taxi medallions in existence and 8,989 are active, that would imply 4,598 inactive medallions. To be fair, maybe inactive is different than stored, but just wanted to note for our readers who might be wondering about why the yellow cab medallion figures don’t exactly bridge.
Additionally, if you click into the data it shows 9,447 yellow cabs as “working” in June. Adding up 9,447 and the 4,207 medallions in storage figure would equal 13,654. The figures are very close to bridging to the 13,587 total number of taxi medallions in existence, but don’t exactly match. We just wanted to note 🚩 this for the TLC and our readers. The data is very much appreciated though and the TLC should be commended for sharing this information.
Green Rides Update
The TLC’s staggered goal of making 100% of all NYC rideshare trips serviced by an wheelchair accessible (WAV) or electric vehicle (EV) by 2030, is comfortably ahead of schedule, with nearly 1 in 5 Uber trips in NYC already “Green Rides” ⚡♿ compliant.
American Lease, a large TLC rental company, recent agreement to purchase over 3,000 all-electric Fisker Ocean SUVs should also be noted related to the Green Rides Initiative. American Lease’s first Fisker Ocean just passed TLC inspection.
Uber/Lyft are just as responsible in the mass hiring of the new 10k ev plates that were allocated. No one wants to take blame including the drivers that advocated for more plate releases. Here are the consequences. It’s a mess but I think unfortunately many drivers will have to leave the business all together. It’s not sustainable if you are raising a family that depends solely on this rideshare reality income.
UR is a joke metric that can be manipulated and has been manipulated by Uber with the lockouts and waitlisting. It is not fair to compare a UR from June to one in January because the circumstances were much different in both scenarios. In any scientifically based analysis when doing data comparisons you need the SAME SET OF VARIABLES. This is not the case now. You could call January’s rate “UR 1.0” and June’s rate “UR 2.0.” One is without lockouts and waitlisting and the other is with, two totally different numbers.
The real number that should be reported is driver earnings of those drivers that are READY, WILLING, AND ABLE during a certain time period. So, for example, how much did drivers earn from 10 am to 3 pm on a Wednesday. Driver earnings would come from drivers that have access to both Lyft and Uber and, therefore, there has to be no differentiation between the two apps. The TLC has access to that sort of data. The way the system is set up now with UR will destroy Lyft because Lyft, already struggling to increase market share, will lose business in an effort to match Uber in UR. This will leave Uber with a monopoly in a worldwide flagship market, which will only serve to increase fares for passengers and for drivers to not share in these extra earnings.
This is no way to do business. Business is measured in dollars earned-not some university contrived metric like UR.